GIS and ICT Insights on Urbanization and Climate Change in Rapidly Growing Cities: A Case Study of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Rapid population growth and land-cover changes in Dar es Salaam have intensified climatic variability, yet their spatial and temporal dynamics remain insufficiently quantified and communicated for effective decision making. This study integrated Excel and R Studio for statistical analyses, GIS for spatial modelling and visualization, and ICT insights to develop an interactive platform to address identified gaps. The results show that between 1990 and 2022, Dar es Salaam’s population and built-up areas increased by 295.61% and 26.2%, respectively. Bushland grew by 5.1% while forest and grassland decreased by 4.2% and 25.9%, respectively. These changes were associated with a slight (R² = 0.0219) decrease in rainfall by 3.94 mm per year and an increase in temperature at 0.0469°C per year. A significant trend (R² = 0.7514) of rising temperatures occurred during long dry seasons and led to a severe drought between 2008 and 2016. A portion of these results is rendered dynamically in a web-based GIS dashboard, https://ilvjosem02.github.io/CoICT-Paper2/, designed to enhance visibility and practical applications of the study’s findings. Testing queries demonstrate that the designed dashboard can be accessed to re-analyze and export its information based on users’ demands.